As the COP30 approaches amid darkening geopolitical clouds\u2014marked by rising rightwing extremism, corporate backtracking and rising militarism\u2014Ali T. Sheikh, Pakistan\u2019s leading expert on sustainable development and climate change, views the world\u2019s largest diplomatic gathering with a mix of apprehension and caution.<\/strong><\/p>\n Against this complex backdrop, understanding how COPs function\u2014and who gets a seat at the table\u2014becomes even more critical.<\/p>\n COPs (Conferences of the Parties) are decision-making bodies of international agreements, where UN agencies, intergovernmental, and non-governmental organizations participate as accredited observers. The private sector often joins government delegations but holds no official observer status.<\/p>\n In this fragile context, rising global military expenditure adds yet another layer of uncertainty to already strained climate finance commitments.<\/p>\n This increase in military expenditure, said Sheikh, will have far-reaching consequences. In July this year, the NATO countries agreed to increase their defense expenditure by 5 percent of their gross domestic product. \u201cThe axe will fall on climate finance,\u201d feared Sheikh. \u201cIt will bring the world upside down and undo 30 years of climate cooperation since the first COP.\u201d<\/p>\n After three consecutive years of oil-producing autocratic states hosting the event, it will be a notable shift to hold climate discussions in Brazil, a country where indigenous rights, forest and biodiversity conservation are tradionally stronger. \u201cPakistan has much to learn,\u201d said Sheikh, a fiercely independent voice, despite serving on several present and past government task forces on climate change.<\/p>\n But President Donald Trump\u2019s recent 56-minute speech at the United Nations General Assembly on September 23, where he called climate change the \u201cgreatest con job ever,\u201d renewable energy a \u201cjoke\u201d and \u201ctoo expensive,\u201d and carbon footprint a \u201choax made up by people with evil intentions,\u201d has only worsened matters for countries like Pakistan, which ranks first among the top ten countries on GermanWatch\u2019s Climate Risk Index 2025 mainly because of \u201cexceptionally high relative economic losses.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cFrom the perspective of a developing country like Pakistan, statements that dismiss climate change as a \u2018con job\u2019 are not just politically charged\u2014they are a profound denial of the lived reality of the people,\u201d said Sheikh<\/p>\n \u201cWe are already on the frontline, experiencing its devastating impacts. The catastrophic floods of 2022 and 2025 that submerged one-third of our country and displaced millions are a stark reminder that climate change is not a future threat\u2014it is an immediate and existential one.\u201d<\/p>\n The economic and human cost, he added, is immense. The 2022 flood caused over USD 30 billion in damages and \u201cset Pakistan back by years.\u201d<\/p>\n Commenting on Trump\u2019s dismissal of green energy, Sheikh said that demonizing green energy is to fundamentally misunderstand the situation for countries like Pakistan.<\/p>\n \u201cFor us, a transition to cleaner energy and greater climate resilience is not a political choice\u2014it is a matter of national survival and economic stability,\u201d he explained. \u201cIt is about protecting our agricultural backbone, which feeds millions from unpredictable monsoon seasons and droughts. It is about safeguarding our urban centers and rural communities from floods and heatwaves.\u201d<\/p>\n While strongly criticizing Trump\u2019s remarks, Sheikh stressed that Pakistan\u2019s response must move beyond protest and toward forward-looking engagement.<\/p>\n He said, when Pakistan goes to Brazil, it should not go there \u201cto ask, instead offer a partnership.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cWe have a lot to offer and several successful projects to showcase, one of them being the Sindh province\u2019s housing project for the flood affected. Even in the current floods, we were able to evacuate over 3 million people, not a mean feat.\u201d<\/p>\n At the same time, he emphasized that Pakistan must clearly articulate its priorities to secure timely support from the global platform. Among them should be improved construction standards for resilient housing and infrastructure\u2014leveraging AI.<\/p>\n Alongside setting clear priorities, he also urged the official delegation to adopt a more strategic approach.<\/p>\n \u201cOur pavilions at COPs are often set up in a way that we end up speaking only to ourselves,\u201d he noted. \u201cInstead, look for opportunities to present Pakistan\u2019s case at other countries\u2019 or organizations\u2019 pavilions\u2014where the audiences are broader, more diverse, and more influential.\u201d<\/p>\n He also noted that Brazil\u2019s hosting of COP30 presented a valuable opportunity to advance regional climate cooperation\u2014something Pakistan should actively pursue.<\/p>\n \u201cAll of Pakistan\u2019s climate challenges are regional, whether it\u2019s heatwaves, glacial lake outburst floods in the Himalayas, cloudbursts, or tropical storms in the Arabian Sea,\u201d he said, adding that India and Pakistan must find a way to talk. \u201cEven a modest conversation between the two neighbours could mark a critical first step.\u201d<\/p>\n Referring to the Indus Waters Treaty, which India has held in abeyance since the Pahalgam attack in Indian-administered Kashmir this April, he said the shrinking space for bilateral dialogue demanded finding alternative diplomatic pathways. In this context, an international platform like COP could serve as a neutral space to initiate cooperation on transboundary water management\u2014beginning, at the very least, with the timely and transparent exchange of monsoon rainfall data.<\/p>\n Shifting from diplomacy to the broader challenge of climate finance, he emphasized the need for a change in perspective.<\/p>\n \u201cRather than viewing climate investment as a burden,\u201d he said to him, it was an \u201cessential investment in the future, specially for countries like mine, which are striving to implement adaptation and mitigation strategies despite their limited resources\u201d.<\/p>\n But the absence of major players like the US in this COP raises questions about global commitment. \u201cIt [US] wasn\u2019t there in Azerbaijan either,\u201d Sheikh added, referring to COP29. \u201cThat didn\u2019t stop it from influencing and affecting negotiations behind the scenes \u2014 through its alliances and financial commitments.<\/p>\n The largest tropical forest in the world, which stores vast amounts of planet-warming greenhouse gases, gives the COP \u201ca chance to redeem its past glory,\u201d he said. At the same time, he acknowledged the growing criticism that such events have increasingly become \u201call about empty promises and inaction,\u201d with the last three conferences even accused of being tainted by oil money.<\/p>\n \u2018It\u2019s Time to Shake Things Up\u2019\u2014Ali T. Sheikh on the upcoming COP30<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n But when 50,000 or so visitors (including 150 heads of state) arrive at the gateway to the Amazon River, between November 10-21, instead of the rainforest, they will be greeted with an impoverished, crime-riddled port city of 2.5 million, where most live in informal settlements. \u201cIt may lead to diverting the global conversation not on criticizing the deniers but, instead, on a crisis of justice for the nations most impacted by a problem they did not create,\u201d hoped Sheikh.<\/p>\n Admitting that there was a need to \u201cshake things up a bit\u201d and inject more energy, Sheikh, pointed out that COP30 faced a much higher bar.<\/p>\n Countries will be submitting their updated nationally determined contributions to reduce emissions while developing nations will expect stronger action on adaptation, loss and damage and mitigation and access to climate finance \u2014 issues that are most difficult to negotiate. Being held in Belem, people are expecting Brazil to show leadership on issues like deforestation, biodiversity, indigenous rights and climate justice.<\/p>\n Yet, delivering on these expectations may prove challenging.<\/p>\n With deforestation and new oil drilling happening in the country, it may be difficult for Brazil to meet that high bar. Along with geopolitical tensions, Sheikh said the finance architecture continues to remain a bottleneck. \u201cWe still have to sort out who pays, who delivers and how quickly.\u201d<\/p>\n Even so, dismissing COPs as ineffective would be short-sighted.<\/p>\n \u201cTo say that nothing ever happens and it\u2019s a waste of everyone\u2019s time is a simplistic view,\u201d says Sheikh, who has attended numerous COPs\u2014both officially as part of Pakistan\u2019s delegation and independently\u2014\u201cstarting the day without breakfast, speaking or rushing to attend countless events, going from one hall to the other, standing in long queues for coffee and returning to the hotel exhausted and hungry.\u201d<\/p>\n While all eyes will be focused on the host country\u2019s role in leading negotiations, building consensus and securing climate finance commitments, Sheikh said much of the real action happens outside the plenary halls.<\/p>\n He was referring to the behind-the-scenes deal-making between sessions, informal pledges, the role of private sector actors and how like-minded nations and interest groups quietly build coalitions.<\/p>\n According to Sheikh, this off-stage diplomacy is often more dynamic and arguably more consequential than what unfolds on the official record\u2014and far more compelling to observe from the gallery.<\/p>\n This interview is published with the support of Open Society Foundations.<\/p>\n![\"Men](\"https:\/\/www.ipsnews.net\/Library\/2022\/09\/A-flooded-village-in-Matiari_.jpg\")
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