In the wake of the terrorist attack at Moscow’s Crocus City Hall last Friday, which killed at least 143 people, Russia is in mourning. The country’s leaders, on the other hand, are doing something else: They’re plotting.
The target is clear. Despite ISIS claiming responsibility for the attack, the Russian leadership has repeatedly blamed Ukraine and its Western backers. Even when President Vladimir Putin grudgingly acknowledged on Monday that the attack was carried out by “radical Islamists,” he suggested they were operating at somebody else’s behest. For now, the Kremlin is keeping its options open: Its spokesman, Dmitri Peskov, said that it was “too early” to discuss Russia’s response. Yet the cacophony of unsubstantiated Kyiv-blaming, accompanied by fresh strikes on Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure, is a clear sign of intent.
From Mr. Putin’s perspective, escalation in Ukraine — involving an intensification of attacks on Ukrainian troops across the front lines with the aim of claiming as much territory as possible, along with increased aerial bombardment on Ukraine’s cities to wear down the population — makes a lot of sense. It would show ordinary Russians that those who harm them will be punished, divert attention from the security establishment’s failure to prevent the attack and perhaps even generate greater support for the war.
But even without the Crocus City Hall attack, Mr. Putin was primed to step up his assault on Ukraine. After his landslide victory in this month’s rubber-stamp presidential election, Mr. Putin is more secure than ever in his position and free to focus fully on the war effort. Militarily, Russian forces now hold material and manpower advantages over Ukraine. The timing is good, too: With Western military support for Kyiv mired in uncertainty, the next few months offer Moscow a window of opportunity for new offensives.
Perhaps most important, the geopolitical conditions are strikingly in Mr. Putin’s favor. Since invading Ukraine two years ago, Russia has reoriented its entire foreign policy to serve its war aims. It has put its economy on a solid non-Western foundation and secured sanction-proof supply chains, largely insulating itself from future Western pressure. It has also ensured a steady provision of weapons from Iran and North Korea. These dictatorships, unlike Western states, can send substantial amounts of arms abroad without having to worry about bureaucratic impediments and public opinion.
Russian officials have worked tirelessly to integrate non-Western states into structures of allegiance, reducing the risk that these partners might pressure Moscow to scale back the war. At the center of these diplomatically ambitious efforts is the club of emerging nations known as BRICS, which recently expanded its ranks. Russia has busily lobbied an ever-growing cohort of countries belonging to what it likes to call the “global majority” — from Algeria to Zimbabwe — to collaborate with the bloc. As chair of the group this year, a politically hyperactive Russia is convening around 250 events, culminating in a summit in October.
After February 2022, Russia was quick to convince non-Western audiences that in Ukraine it is fighting a proxy war with the United States. If the view that the West drove Russia to war was already popular in the developing world two years ago, every piece of Western military equipment sent to Ukraine has only entrenched it further. The hope that heavyweights like Brazil, China or India might urge Mr. Putin to back down in Ukraine has long since dissipated, given the continued friendly relations between them. War in Ukraine, which will never be normal to the people of Ukraine, has been normalized in much of the world.
What’s more, Mr. Putin has paired his non-Western charm offensive with heightened confrontation with the West. Under his watch, Russia has cultivated problems and pressure points for Western countries that make it harder for them to stay laser-focused in their support of Ukraine. The Kremlin has rebuffed U.S. offers to resume nuclear arms-control talks, for example, and reduced efforts to help prevent the spread of nuclear weapons. Moscow’s categorical unwillingness to address shared dangers, from the risk of nuclear war to climate change, places yet more stress on an already frail international order.
The Russian government has also become more brazen in inciting anti-Western forces across the globe. It has cozied up to North Korea, supported the military dictatorships in Africa’s Sahel region south of the Sahara and encouraged Iran and its network of proxies. Wherever there’s a threat to Western interests, Russian military support or political patronage is not far behind. Taken together, Moscow’s machinations fuel a feeling of growing instability worldwide. In this atmosphere, war in Ukraine registers as just one among many problems.
Ukraine’s Western backers are hardly blameless for this state of affairs. Support for Israel’s unconscionable military campaign in Gaza, for one, has tarnished the West’s image and destroyed any remaining chance, however small, that it could muster more backing for Ukraine’s defense in the rest of the world. The West has not been deaf to the accusations of hypocrisy and double standards over Gaza and immense suffering elsewhere. It simply, through a combination of inertia and impassivity, does not wish to change course.
Two years into the largest attack on a European country since World War II, European capitals are still struggling to respond decisively. They are too sluggish in sending ammunition to Ukraine and continue to be divided on how to hold the line against Russia. In the United States, Donald Trump’s coronation as Republican presidential nominee threatens to weigh down the Biden administration as the November election approaches and partisan deadlock is preventing Congress from passing sorely needed funding for Ukraine. The West’s ability to get its act together has never looked more tenuous.
Difficult months lie ahead for Ukraine. If anything, the Crocus City Hall attack in Moscow — which brutally upended Mr. Putin’s claims to provide for Russia’s security — is likely to make matters worse. With the initiative on the battlefield and much of the world looking elsewhere, Russia may soon start to make good on its advantage. On Wednesday, Russia struck the northeastern city of Kharkiv with aerial bombs for the first time since 2022. It could be a premonition of things to come.