5 countries to keep an eye on in a year of elections around the globe – World

After enduring a year filled with uncertainty, Pakistanis are poised to head to the polling stations to cast their votes on February 8. But Pakistan is not the only nation where citizens will be exercising their right to franchise this year.

According to Time magazine, 2024 will see more than half the world’s population — 4.2 billion citizens across approximately 65 countries — go to polls in what can be called a staggering display of democracy.

The polls come at a time when, according to a 2023 report by a United States government-funded think-tank, Freedom House, global freedom declined for the 17th consecutive year.

They also come at a time of escalating conflict in the world — Israeli bombardment of Gaza continues despite calls for a ceasefire as well as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Dawn.com has compiled a list of five countries set to conduct general elections this year, delving into why these electoral processes hold great importance.

United States of America

India

National elections in India are due by May 2024, though several state polls are expected to be held before then.

The victories in three of the five states that voted in November boosted the right-wing Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Modi, who is already the favourite to win his third consecutive term in office this year.

Promising change, Modi swept to power in 2014, and he has consolidated his hold since with welfare economics, a focus on boosting infrastructure and aggressive Hindu nationalism.

India’s once-dominant political force, the Congress party under Rahul Gandhi, lost the last two successive national elections in 2014 and 2019 in historic defeats to Modi and the BJP.

More than two dozen Indian opposition parties joined hands in July last year to form a 26-parties alliance called “INDIA” — consisting of powerful regional parties with a strong base in the south and east, where the BJP is weak — to take on the ruling party in parliamentary elections this year.

Rivals say the government has ensured that the BJP’s line dominates mainstream newspapers, television news channels and social media with its combativeness, often drowning out critical voices.

Russia

Russia is another country where elections will be taking place this year. The election will be held over three days from March 15-17 and the winner will be inaugurated in May.

Voting will also take place in what Russia calls its new territories — parts of Ukraine now controlled by Russian forces. Ukraine says it will not rest until it has ejected every last soldier from the annexed territories. Russia says the regions are now part of Russia.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said he would run for president again in the 2024 presidential election, a move expected to keep him in power until at least 2030.

The West casts Putin as a war criminal and dictator, although some Russian opinion polls show he has approval ratings of 80pc — higher than before the war in Ukraine.

Around 110 million people have the right to vote in Russia, though around 70-80 million people usually cast ballots. Turnout in 2018 was 67.5 per cent.

Russia’s most famous opposition politician, Alexei Navalny, is in jail and, therefore, cannot run for president. Navalny has castigated Putin’s Russia as a state run by thieves and criminals. He has warned Russia’s leaders will ultimately be crushed by the forces of history and will burn in hell for creating a bloodbath in Ukraine.

Taiwan

Taiwan’s presidential race could be consequential if its ruling party is re-elected on January 13. An unprecedented third term for the Democratic Progressives (DPP) would frustrate Beijing which claims the self-governed island as its own.

China has gone as far as to cast the island’s elections as a choice between war and peace across the Taiwan Strait, warning that any attempt to push for Taiwan’s formal independence means conflict. Taiwan’s government rejects China’s sovereignty assertion.

All the candidates contesting insist they will strive to maintain Taiwan’s “status quo”. While they each have their own interpretation, it more or less describes the current state of limbo where there is no formal Taiwanese independence and no reunification with China.

That has been key to preserving peace for Taiwan over the years. The DPP’s candidate, Vice President Lai Ching-te, insists he will stick to the position too but Beijing views him as a dangerous separatist.

Both the DPP and Taiwan’s largest opposition party, the Kuomintang (KMT), say only they can preserve the peace and have committed to bolstering Taiwan’s defences. Both say only Taiwan’s 23 million people can decide their future, although the KMT says it strongly opposes independence.

The Jan 13 presidential and parliamentary contests represent the first real wild card in 2024 for the Biden administration’s goal of stabilising ties with China. US officials have been careful to avoid appearing to steer or interfere with the island’s democratic process.

“Our strong expectation and hope is that those elections be free of intimidation or coercion, or interference from all sides. The United States is not involved and will not be involved in these elections,” US Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns said in December.

Washington also says it does not support independence but there is some concern in the US capital that a victory by the KMT’s Hou Yu-ih could undermine US efforts to beef up Taiwan’s military deterrence. The party traditionally favours closer ties to China, though denies being pro-Beijing.

Mexico

Mexico is preparing for its largest election yet on June 2, potentially marking the election of a female president for the first time in its history.

With a population of around 129 million and approximately 96 million registered voters, the country will choose between ruling leftist party candidate Claudia Sheinbaum and her main rival Xochitl Galvez, candidate of a right-left alliance of three parties.

For the first time, all 32 states in Mexico will simultaneously hold elections, deciding on 20,000 positions encompassing the presidency, congressional seats, governorships, and local offices.

President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, representing the National Regeneration Movement (MORENA), currently leads the nation, but Mexico enforces a single-term limit.

Sheinbaum, a scientist and former Mexico City mayor, emerges as the fresh face of MORENA and a leading candidate, significantly ahead in polls. Her platform pledges to address challenges like gang violence and leverage nearshoring — an increasing trend of US businesses relocating operations to Mexico to cut costs — to bolster the country’s economy.

Xochitl Galvez, a senator with Indigenous roots representing the National Action Party, aims to challenge MORENA’s dominance. Her campaign centres on combating violence.

Obrador’s tenure has witnessed Mexico’s bloodiest period, marked by a record number of murders. The “war on drugs,” initiated three presidential terms ago, failed to diminish violence.

The forthcoming administration faces a critical test: whether to persist with a militarised approach or explore alternative, less punitive policies. Lingering disparities in access to quality healthcare and education remain significant challenges.