Opinion | Putin Is Making His Plans Brutally Clear

New Year’s Eve is an important holiday in Ukraine. At the end of December, I asked my sister how she would be celebrating this year. “In the bomb shelter,” she said, matter-of-factly. She planned to cook sandwiches, which would be easier to carry down to the safe room from the 10th floor if there was an air-raid siren.

In 2023 there were more than 6,000 air alerts in Ukraine. Last month alone, Russia launched some 624 drones carrying explosives, according to official sources. On Dec. 29, more than 120 Russian missiles and drones targeted towns across the country, killing 44 people. It was the deadliest attack on civilians in Kyiv since the beginning of the war.

In all of December, there was just one night without an attack.

Russia’s strikes increased as attempts to authorize more funding for Ukraine stalled in the U.S. Congress and in Europe. Since the fall, Kyiv’s western allies have reportedly been quietly pushing for negotiations to end the war. By the end of December, Vladimir Putin was also reportedly signaling that he, too, was ready to make a deal.

A Russian political observer I talked to suggested that these signals from Mr. Putin were calibrated to capitalize on the sense of gloom among Ukraine’s allies in Europe and the United States; to further delay military aid when Ukraine was already low on ammunition and vulnerable, and to allow Russia to further press its advantage.

But Ukrainians already know that when it comes to Mr. Putin, one must not trust what he says, but watch what he does. From Kyiv it’s clear that Mr. Putin is not preparing to offer anything that Ukrainians could agree to — and he knows it. His plans are occupation, devastation and destruction.

Peace would require a genuine guarantee that the Kremlin won’t use a cease-fire simply to rearm and launch a renewed assault from the occupied Ukrainian territories. According to recent polling, most Ukrainians are still against any territorial concessions to Russia and many say any peace deal must also bring Crimea back under Ukraine’s control, lest the threat of invasion continue indefinitely.

What Mr. Putin is offering — according to The Times, a cease-fire that “freezes the fighting along the current lines” — is not peace but occupation, and occupation is just a different kind of war.

The Reckoning Project, which investigates and documents potential war crimes in Ukraine — I am one of its co-founders — has investigated the deaths of hundreds of civilians in attacks on towns far from the battlefield, strikes on residential areas, shopping malls and restaurants and attacks that used precise ammunition on civilians evacuating train stations.

Life in the parts of Ukraine that are now under Russian rule is even more dreadful. In the territories controlled by Russian troops since 2022, we have recorded hundreds of testimonies describing enforced disappearances and arbitrary detention. A number of people who were arrested have since been found dead; among the survivors of detention are widespread patterns of both physical and psychological torture, including beating, sexual violence and electrocution.

I understand the emotional fatigue of watching the Russian war against Ukraine from a distance. I understand how a sense of powerlessness can engender disappointment and cynicism.

Yet from here, ruminating about giving up feels like a luxury. If the Ukrainian army lays down arms, more people could be harmed. For us, that simple fact drives us forward in this war. So Ukrainians feel it is their duty to persuade the world, and particularly America and Europe, that their support is not in vain. That it saves lives every day.

On Jan. 2 Russia launched 35 kamikaze drones, some 60 cruise missiles and 10 hypersonic Kinzhal missiles — which Russia has claimed are impossible to shoot down — on Kyiv. Ukrainian air defense systems were able to shoot down most of the missiles and the drones, primarily using U.S.-built Patriot surface-to-air missile defense systems.

In the attack, falling debris severely damaged a residential building close to the central railway station, killing three people and injuring 52. Without these defense systems, the whole neighborhood could have been wiped out.

On the day after a strike, you’re kinder to everybody you come across because you know that your neighbor, taxi driver, waiter or colleague had the same sleepless night. On such days the rule is to start every conversation with, “How are you?” And to help: The apartment of a disabled man was destroyed on Jan. 2. I followed a link to donate to the fund to get him a new place and saw that it had already raised more than its target.

I went to see what remained of a house that was almost destroyed that day, the most damaged residential building in the capital so far in the war. It looked like a huge wound on the city’s body. Its broken windows were already clogged with plywood. Hot tea and food were being served in a volunteer tent at the site, and announcements describing how to apply for compensation were plastered everywhere.

Last year, Russia started attacking more often in January and February, when the temperature went down. It used drones to target the power grid, weaponizing the cold against civilians. People had to use generators, and power cuts were frequent. This year, the power grid is less vulnerable, and people have needed generators less.

Last week started with an air-raid siren. Mr. Putin is making his plans brutally clear. But Ukrainians are still capable of turning their anger into action.

Nataliya Gumenyuk is a Ukrainian journalist and a co-founder of The Reckoning Project.

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