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Myanmar’s junta carried out fresh air strikes on an opposition-held town Friday, hours after issuing an unprecedented invitation to its enemies for talks on the country’s civil war.
Thursday’s surprise call for discussions was likely a sop to main ally China and a nudge towards controversial fresh elections, analysts said, and two prominent armed groups swiftly dismissed it.
The offer came with the junta reeling from battlefield reverses to ethnic minority armed groups and pro-democracy “People’s Defence Forces” that rose up to oppose the military’s seizure of power in 2021.
The groups have seized several lucrative border crossings and last month took Lashio, a city of 150,000 people — the biggest urban centre to fall to rebels since 1962.
The call was “the first time that the regime has expressed a willingness to have a dialogue with the post-coup resistance forces”, said Richard Horsey of the International Crisis Group.
Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing has long spoken of “annihilating” the groups, he pointed out.
Hours after the offer, military jets bombed Lashio, in northern Shan state, now in the hands of fighters from the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA).
“I heard two explosions,” a resident told AFP, asking for anonymity for security reasons.
“I heard five people were killed and a lot of people were wounded.”
One Yangon-based diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, said of the junta’s offer: “So far I haven’t seen the inclination towards serious reconciliation.”
– ‘No change’ –
AFP has contacted for comment the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), ethnic armed groups that hold territory in the north. The MNDAA could not be reached.
The Karen National Union, which has fought for decades for autonomy along the Thai border, said talks were only possible if the military agreed to “common political objectives”.
That included the military staying out of politics, accepting a new, federal constitution, and being held accountable for “war crimes and crimes against humanity”, spokesman Padoh Saw Taw Nee said.
“If they don’t agree with it, then nothing will happen… We will keep putting pressure on them politically, militarily,” he told AFP.
The military is highly unlikely to agree to such terms.
A spokesperson for the “Mandalay PDF”, which has seized territory in the hills around second city Mandalay, also dismissed the offer.
“This invitation won’t make any changes to our way,” said Osmond, who goes by a pseudonym.
“We will keep doing what we have to do.”
– ‘Divide and rule’ –
But even if nothing comes of the invitation, just issuing it could still have value for the regime, said Horsey.
“It would allow them to portray themselves — for example to China, which is pushing for a deal — as wanting peace, even while they continue with their campaign of indiscriminate airstrikes.”
China is a major ally and arms supplier to the isolated junta and its sprawling Belt and Road Initiative includes key projects in Myanmar.
Last month Beijing’s foreign minister said it supported the junta’s plan to hold fresh polls and return the conflict-torn country to a “democratic transition”.
“China hopes that all relevant parties will stop fighting and hold talks,” a foreign ministry spokesperson told a regular press briefing on Friday.
Independent analyst David Mathieson said that in addition to Beijing, the offer was likely aimed at neighbouring countries and some western diplomats who may see elections as a “vehicle to reduce violence and pursue a process of de-escalation”, despite their inevitable flaws.
The military, which justified its coup with unsubstantiated allegations of fraud in the 2020 elections won by Aung San Suu Kyi’s party, has long pledged to hold fresh polls when conditions permit.
It has since dissolved Suu Kyi’s popular National League for Democracy (NLD) and introduced tough new rules governing political parties.
Census takers are due to start collecting data in early October in preparation for possible polls in 2025, but analysts say any vote would be a sham and would likely be targeted by the military’s opponents.
“Hovering above all of this is the Myanmar military’s tried and tested divide and rule strategy,” said Mathieson, adding it “may be soiled and strained but still effective”.
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