Dwindling cotton production – Pakistan

Cotton, one of the country’s major crops, continues to struggle for revival. The cash crop, known as ‘white gold’, is a principal input of Pakistan’s textile industry and enables the country to earn foreign exchange through exports.

The crop is faced with multiple issues in terms of production across Pakistan. Inadequate price factors at farmers’ end, unavailability of quality seed, and serious variations in weather patterns driven by climate change, flooding, and pests have made the crop vulnerable, leading to a decline in production. While the textile industry is importing lint cotton using precious foreign exchange, growers are switching over to other crops.

Sindh had achieved 98 per cent of its 640,000-hectare cultivation target by bringing 624,790 hectares under cotton cultivation. This season, the province lost acreage by 13pc, sowing only 550,116 hectares against a target of 630,000 hectares. Sanghar, home to cotton cultivation across Pakistan, reported 125,000 hectares under cotton cultivation, followed by the second highest acreage of 93,000 hectares in Ghotki and third highest of 85,000 hectares in Khairpur — all left bank districts of Sindh that were known for their rich cotton production.

Two decades ago, Pakistan produced 14.26 million bales in 2004 compared with 2.06m hectares and 4.91m bales in 2022. Sindh’s last impressive production figures were seen in 2009 when it produced 4.2m bales. Since then, this performance hasn’t been repeated.

Precious foreign exchange is being used to import lint as farmers shift to other crops owing to the unavailability of seeds and low returns

As per figures from the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA), a 59.4pc decline in cotton production was observed till Oct 1, 2024. A total number of 2.04m bales were produced till Oct 1, 2024, when compared with 5.03m bales in the corresponding period of 2023. PCGA’s province-wise figures indicate Sindh had 1.3m bales in comparison to last year’s 2.9m bales, showing a drop of 55.57pc. Punjab, once Pakistan’s biggest cotton producer, has produced 0.7m bales by Oct 1 against last year’s 2.07m in the corresponding period.

Pakistan had achieved 8.4m bales in 2023, as per PCGA figures. However, the Economic Survey of Pakistan reported 10.2m bales production in 2023, which adds a certain quantum of undocumented cotton production. PCGA says that 34pc production shortfall is noteworthy in 2022’s 4.91m bales when compared with 7.44m bales in 2021. The 2022’s reduction was due to massive flooding in Sindh and Punjab.

The countrywide cotton production target this year was stated to be 11m bales, which now looks difficult as national cotton production could end up on the lower side or around 8m bales. The textile industry always looks to import cotton in such circumstances to meet industrial demand, which hovers between 12-13m bales, which once used to be 16-17m bales.

“We pay precious foreign exchange to import lint cotton for the textile industry. Labourers and farmers suffer as they lose their share of economic returns in cotton. These two major dents are caused by the cotton sector,” said a worried Mahmood Nawaz Shah, president of Sindh Abadgar Board (SAB). He claimed cotton producers have been crying hoarse against a consistent decline in production.

Two decades ago, Pakistan produced 14.26 million bales in 2004 compared with 4.91m bales in 2022

Punjab farmers report 10-15pc decline in acreage this season whereas production wise 50pc loss was being recorded, according to Pakistan Kissan Ittehad leader Khalid Mehmood Khokhar. He said the decline in cotton acreage/production goes unchecked, “Our Vehari district, historically, produced 1.6m bales in 1992, which was more than all of Sindh’s current production of 1.2m bales.

“Remember, our bale had 170kg weight at that time, unlike today’s 150kg. This means that the actual reduction in production is greater than what we have noted. We avoid technological advancement and research,” he claimed while explaining that lower yields, variations in weather patterns, and better income prospects in other crops forced farmers to lose interest in cotton. Insofar as Punjab is concerned, growers take a keen interest in paddy and maize production.

Mr Khokhar and Mr Shah believe that Pakistan needs to seriously optimise research-oriented measures to have higher yields or be content with this decline. Research bodies in provinces remain idle for want of government patronage, thus leaving farmers high and dry, and that’s why Zahid Mazharpuri, former Sindh zone chairman of All Pakistan Textile Mills Association (APTMA), terms cotton as an orphan crop.

In Sindh, farmers still connected with cotton crops complain of deduction by ginners. Their cries about price, which doesn’t match their production cost, remain endless. “The government had announced that cotton producers will get Rs8,500 per 40kg price this season, but this promise was not fulfilled as the cotton’s rate plummeted to Rs5,000 per 40kg in 2024,” argued Sindh Abadgar Ittehad president Nawab Zubair Talpur.

Yarn-producing industrialist Tauqir Tariq said when cotton in Sindh faced issues of quality seed’s unavailability coupled with pricing factors, industrialists started getting cotton from Punjab alone. But when Punjab started reporting problems of contamination in cotton that reached ginning and spinning, the industry situation worsened worsened, forcing textile millers to go for lint import.

“Interestingly, now lint is imported, and yarn is exported. What sort of arrangement is this?” he asked and urged the government to review cotton policy by revising the duty regime and closing raw cotton exports.

“If quality cotton is produced locally, I will be more than happy to buy it to save my 30pc cost of doing business. A full-fledged textile industry deals with the cotton sector, yet we are in a state of crisis that seems unending,” he regretted.

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, October 7th, 2024