Avoiding the New Cold War by Michael Doyle

A new Cold War between the United States, Russia, and China begins as the post-Cold War era fades from memory. Cold Peace: Avoiding the New Cold War by Michael Doyle explores the new great power intricacies. He looks at several issues alongside providing policy recommendations to reduce tensions.

The book comprises nine chapters: (i) Defining Cold War (ii) Cold War II (iii) Superpower Systems, Hegemonic Transitions, and Multidimensional Polarity (iv)Corporatist, Nationalist Autocracies (v) Liberal, Capitalist Democracies (vi) Italian Fascism and American Politics (vii) Japanese Militarism and American Policy (viii) Future Scenarios (ix) Four Bridges to a Cold Peace.

In Chapter One, the author describes the Cold War prominent experts such as Henry Kissinger and Herbert Raymond McMaster who warn that a New Cold War may be on the horizon. The author explains how the Ukraine conflict has caused a ‘Return to Cold War’ between the US and Russia (p. 17), marked by deeply structured conflict, driven by international and domestic factors. Doyle takes a broader approach, exploring the rise of China and the regimes of Iran and North Korea. These threats are compared with the forces of fascism, imperialism, and communist totalitarianism that once imperiled the world. Some others are of the view that a different phraseology to describe the complex struggle includes “Hot Peace” and “Cool War” (p.16). This was followed by pointing out the notion of “great power competition”.

In Chapter Two, the author discusses that the new Russian-led global cybercrime treaty has sparked a new authoritarian versus liberal divide with countries like China and, Russia being perceived as a “Digital Iron Curtain” (p.56).

In Chapter Three, the author explores the complexities of superpower systems, examining the dynamics of hegemonic transitions, the implications of multidimensional polarity, differences between multipolarity and bipolarity, and the challenges of cooperation in a complex environment. The United States was the sole superpower in the unipolar system. Liberal optimists, such as Francis Fukuyama, then announced an “end to history” (p.71). The rise of China has created contrarian complexities, with the existing dominant power, as seen in the “Thucydides Trap” (p.80). By 2030, China’s economy will surpass the economy of the United States, While India’s will relatively be a smaller power with zero probability of shaping a bipolar world in the next 15 years (p.72).

Chapter Four delves into the difficulties of the emerging international order, marked by a rivalry between corporatist, nationalist autocracies (CNAs) like Russia and China and liberal, capitalist democracies (LCDs) like the US and its allies.

Chapter Five explores the emerging national security challenges faced by the US in the context of rising global powers like China and Russia. The author highlights two key issues: (i) Domestic strategic vulnerability, driven by deep grievances and divisions within American society and the US vulnerability to foreign subversion (p.148). (ii) The new Cold War was characterized by a clash of domestic structures and ideological affinities between liberal democracies and authoritarian states.

In Chapter Six, the author explores how the new Cold War has important historical analogues. Just like Putin is not Stalin, Xi is not Mao and no one today is Hitler (p.154), but there are important links between 20^th-century fascism and 21^st-century “corporatist, nationalist autocracy”. The ideas and policies of Mussolini in his attacks on Ethiopia and intervention in the Spanish Republic (p.154) are the same models that Russia is following today. It is easy to see how Mussolini’s Fascists dominated Italy and it is also easy to see the parallels to Putin’s emergence to power but there are multiple differences between Italy in the 1920s and 1930s and modern Russia.

In Chapter Seven, the author discusses the important links between the strategic environment and choices made by the Japanese military regime of the 1930s and the environment confronted by and policies chosen by President Xi Jinping in China today. The rising power of an autocratic Japan in the Pacific led to the Second World War. Now the Third World War is in the offing with China, but tensions may be equally severe as autocratic China continues to rise (p.180). Tensions between Japan and the United States, especially militarism, were the result of many comprehensive factors in the early 20^th century. We have much to learn from the circumstances faced and the mistakes made by the statesmen of the interwar period.

In Chapter Eight, the author highlights the tense geopolitical landscape of our period, which focuses on the potential threat of a new emerging Cold War between the United States, Russia, and China. Especially, it is concerned with their nuclear and cyber warfare capabilities. The legacy of the Cold War warns that the New Cold War can be more dangerous, especially with China’s emergence as a primary rival of the US. The author advocated that diplomacy and cooperation over destructive rivalries can be solved by shifting of the Cold War into Cold Peace. The book also explores further scenarios for US-China relations suggesting the perspective of “competitive co-existence” could bring a stable, manageable rivalry.

The Last Chapter underscores the need for pragmatic solutions to global issues like climate change and other conflicts in Crimea and Taiwan, advocating for comprise and cooperation to avoid further tensions. The idea of “Cyber Peace” is introduced to address the rising threat of cyber conflicts, with suggestions for multilateral engagements to eliminate further risks (p.231).

In conclusion, the book can be a captivating reading for scholars and students of international politics. The author presents historical examples to prove his arguments on how the Cold War and the New Cold War resemble each other, however, the instruments of the New Cold War, including cyber war and industrial espionage, make for strife. Overall, the book offers the possibility of creative cooperation despite the recent terrible invasion of Ukraine serving as a warning.

The writer is a Former Research Intern at the Center for International Strategic Studies Sindh (CISSS), Karachi.