Can the shadow of 2022’s deadly deluge swing flood-hit voters? – Pakistan

ON A cold January morning, a blanket of mist hangs above Manchhar Lake, said to be the largest freshwater lake in Asia. Dense fog has brought visibility to near-zero levels, but the water in the lake looks placid. There are a few fishermen around, sputtering about in small motorised boats as they ply for their catch. They do not venture deep.

Nearby, a handful of labourers are building a small house for one of the villagers who lost their abode in the 2022 floods. “Let me show you around,” says Mahmood, the soon-to-be owner of the house in Malook Mallah village. He leads me around and talks about several issues.

In Mahmood’s village, located on the toe of the Manchhar Containing Bund, almost every other mud-and-brick house had collapsed in the 2022 floods. New houses are now being built with government funding.

“We left around 15 or 20 days before the lake’s banks were breached,” says another dweller of the same village, Allah Dino Mallah. Dino recalls how, during the 2022 floods, he relocated with his family to nearby Lal Bagh, located near the shrine of great sufi saint, Qalandar Lal Shahbaz in Sehwan, where a relief camp had been set up. There they remained till the water receded from their village, and returned to find that their home had been wiped out by the floods.

As I speak to him, my head is filled with memories of Sept 2022, when I last came here soon after the monsoons. Surging waters churned by gusty summer winds had raised the water level to near overflowing. By the time I left, a breach looked imminent and sure enough, authorities cut the bund at a location where water from the breach first hit Bagh Yousuf village to ease the pressure on the other embankments by the next day.

A day later, the embankment was cut again at another location to inundate parts of Bubak in a bid to drain the lake before it burst its banks. All these areas are located in the East of Manchhar when one heads towards Sehwan city. More cuts followed. The rest is a painful saga of pain, misery and destruction.

The water from those cuts submerged ten union councils in Sehwan taluka, namely Bubak, Wahur, Jaffarabad, Channa, Arazi, Sheikh, Bhanbha, Talti, Jhangara and Bajara. The people living in these UCs panicked as administration officials started sending messages asking them to leave.

“Vote saeen ka hay,” says Dino when I ask him who he will vote for on Feb 8. He is referring to Murad Ali Shah, the former chief minister of the province. Manchhar falls in his constituency, PS-77 (Jamshoro-I). Dino doesn’t care who is contesting against Murad, he just says “Saeen ka muqabla hi nahi kisi say idher”

“I received two instalments [from the provincial government] for house reconstruction,” says Dino. He is talking about a Sindh government programme launched under the umbrella of the Sindh People’s Housing for Flood Affectees (SPHF) company. The World Bank has committed funds for climate-resilient houses comprising a room, veranda, kitchen, and bathroom. This programme, which aims to reconstruct 2.1 million houses in flood-affected areas, was regularly referred to by PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari during his electioneering.

SPHF is the outgoing PPP government’s flagship programme, which remained incomplete till the end of its term in office. The party was poised to complete flood victims’ rehabilitation programme. As foreign minister in the PDM government, Mr Bhutto-Zardari had even linked his party’s vote for the 2023-24 budget with the government’s decision to allocate funds for flood victims that were promised last year.

He lately pressed the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) to lift its ban on the release of funds meant for flood victims’ rehabilitation programme, so that the work may continue in caretaker set-up as well.

By mid-Sept last year ECP allowed Sindh caretakers to continue with WB-funded projects of houses’ reconstruction. “We secured have secured more than $2 billion in funds from the World Bank, Asian Development Bank and Islamic Development Bank to rehabilitate flood-affected areas”, outgoing CM Murad had said.

“Vote saeen ka hay,” Dino says when I ask him who he will vote for on Feb 8. ‘Saeen’ refers to former CM Sindh Murad Ali Shah. Manchhar falls in Murad’s provincial constituency, PS-77 (Jamshoro-I), where he is contesting the poll for the PPP. Despite the trauma and miseries that Dino endured, he asserts in heavily accented Urdu, “Saeen ka muqabla hi nahi kisi say idher” (there is no competition for Murad Ali Shah here). Dino is least bothered about who is contesting against Murad.

“I am investing my savings to build a house,” says another village inhabitant, Ali Mallah, who has received one instalment of Rs75,000 followed by another of Rs100,000. He is awaiting the third. “Life was indeed difficult, but since I am a carpenter and engage in boat building, I found employment in the Lal Bagh camp,” Ali shares. He is concerned about the expenses incurred out of his own pocket on his house. He explains how a trolley of 3,000 bricks costs Rs40,000 and that at least 4.5 trolleys are needed to complete an 18×22 room and attached facilities.

The number of houses being built under the reconstruction guidelines agreed upon by the World Bank and the Sindh government has been revised upward, according to SPHF Chief Executive Officer Khalid Mehmood Shaikh.

“Assured funding for 0.7m houses has been arranged now. The Sindh government has pitched in Rs50bn ($227m), and the World Bank has offered $500m, besides the Islamic Development Bank’s support,” he says. He adds that many flood-hit people are investing in their houses. “They had been making such investments before but always lost them. Now, their abodes are here to stay,” Sheikh says.

After being submerged by floodwater from a breach in the Suprio embankment, Khairpur Nathan Shah has only recently seen life return to normal. It is a small city 83 kilometres upstream from the northeast of Manchhar Lake and located in the Dadu district on the right bank of the Indus. It takes 90 minutes to reach KN Shah from the lake.

The Suprio bund is located on the left bank of the Main Nara Valley Drain (MNVD) and was built to protect KN Shah if a breach were to occur in the MNVD. When I visited KN Shah in Sept ’22, the deluge had left a large number of people marooned with their herds of livestock. It was quite difficult to see mothers carrying newborns as they disembarked or boarded boats, which were the only means of transport for leaving or entering KN Shah at the time. When the water eventually receded, it left behind fresh miseries for the residents.

The people in KN Shah think differently about the disaster they suffered. They can’t help but express their ire at the government’s management of the disaster.

Aslam Ali, a trader, is one of the residents who spoke to Dawn. His real name has been changed to protect his identity.

“I was admitted to a cardiac hospital, and my son had to stay back home,” he says. “It was just chaos when people were told to leave KN Shah before the water drowned them in the night.”

Somehow, the people managed to move to safer places or alternate accommodations. “The miseries were unforgettable,” Aslam recalls.

“Everyone blames the last government for what they believe was the second intentional inundation of KN Shah,” he says. “But I think people will still vote for the ruling party.”

KN Shah lost 19 residents in the 2022 flooding, which, according to irrigation officer Zarif Iqbal Khero, was equivalent to five or six times the storage capacity of the Tarbela Dam. Their 19 graves, in a row, line the edge of the metalled road connecting Nazar Mohammad Mughairi village with KN Shah.

Labourer Santosh Kumar will also vote for the PPP. “I am clear as far as my vote is concerned. My vote is for Bilawal. His family has made sacrifices. The leadership is honest, but the government machinery doesn’t perform,” he asserts.

Munawar Bhutto, a resident of Union Council Fatehpur, grimaces as he recalls the 2022 flooding. “The survey of damaged houses is said to have been completed,” he complains, “but my family is still living in a makeshift tent after losing our home.”

Published in Dawn, February 7th, 2024

Header image: Construction of flood-hit houses is underway in the Malook Mallah village in Sehwan.—Umair Ali